(Ebook PDF) What are the Chances of That How to Think About Uncertainty 1st Edition by Andrew CA Elliott ISBN 9780198869023 0198869029 full chapters

(Ebook PDF) What are the Chances of That How to Think About Uncertainty 1st Edition by Andrew CA Elliott -Ebook PDF Instant Download/Delivery:9780198869023, 0198869029

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ISBN 10:0198869029

ISBN 13:9780198869023 

Author:  Andrew C.A. Elliott

Yet, for something woven so closely into the fabric of our being, we are not very good at thinking about uncertainty and risk. In this lively and engaging book, Andrew C. A. Elliott asks why this is so. He picks at the threads and, in showing how our world is built on probability rather than certainty, he identifies five obstacles to thinking about uncertainty that confuse us time after time.

Elliott takes us into the casino, but this is not an invitation to gamble. He looks at financial markets, but this is not a guide to investment. There’s discussion of health, but this is not a medical book. He touches on genetics and evolution, and music-making, and writing, because chance is at work there too. Entering many different fields, What are the Chances of That? is always following the trail of chance and randomness. One purpose of the book is to go cross-country, to show that there are connected ways of thinking that disrespect boundaries and cut across the domains of finance, and gambling, and genetics, and public health, and creativity. Through it, one visits the vantage points that give a broad view of the landscape and sees how these different areas of life and knowledge are connected – through chance.

What are the Chances of That? discusses chance and the importance of understanding how it affects our lives. It goes beyond a mathematical approach to the subject, showing how our thinking about chance and uncertainty has been shaped by history and culture, and only relatively recently by the mathematical theory of probability. In considering how we think about uncertainty, Elliott proposes five “dualities” that encapsulate many of the ambiguities that arise.

Table of Contents:

• 1. The Roll of the Dice
• 2. Reckoning the Chances
• 3. Random Thoughts
• 4. Patterns of Probability
• Life Chances
• 5. Isn’t that a coincidence?
• 6. What Luck!
• 7. Taking a Gamble
• 8. Danger of Death
• 9. What’s There to Worry About?
• Happy Accidents
• 10. Chance Discoveries
• 11. Mixing it Up
• 12. A Chance to Live
• 13. Random Technology
• Taking Charge of Chance
• 14. The Weight of Evidence
• 15. Clarity from Chaos
• 16. Sharing the Risk
• 17. Shaping the Risk
• 18. What’s Coming Next
• 19. Last Chance

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