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• ISBN 10:0192566334 

• ISBN 13:9780192566331

• Author:Brendan OLeary 

 A Treatise on Northern Ireland, Volume III
Consociation and Confederation
The third volume of the definitive political history of Northern Ireland. The Good Friday Agreement deserved the attention the world gave it, even if it was not always accurately understood. After its ratification in two referendums, for the first time in history political institutions throughout the island of Ireland rested upon the freely given assent of majorities of all the peoples on the island. It marked, it was hoped, the full political decolonization of Ireland. Whether Ireland would reunify, or whether Northern Ireland remain in union with Great Britain now rested on the will of the people of Ireland, North and South respectively: a complex mode of power-sharing addressed the self-determination dispute. The concluding volume of Brendan O’Leary’s A Treatise on Northern Ireland explains the making of this settlement, and the many failed initiatives that preceded it under British direct rule. Long-term structural and institutional changes and short-term political maneuvers are given their due in this lively but comprehensive assessment. The Anglo-Irish Agreement is identified as the political tipping point, itself partially the outcome of the hunger strikes of 1980-81 that had prevented the criminalization of republicanism. Until 2016 the prudent judgment seemed to be that the Good Friday Agreement had broadly worked, eventually enabling Sinn Féin and the DUP to share power, with intermittent attention from the sovereign governments. Cultural Catholics appeared content if not in love with the Union with Great Britain. But the decision to hold a referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union has collaterally damaged and destabilized the Good Friday Agreement. That, in turn, has shaped the UK’s tortured exit negotiations with the European Union. In appraising these recent events and assessing possible futures, readers will find O’Leary’s distinctive angle of vision clear, sharp, unsentimental, and unsparing of reputations, in keeping with the mastery of the historical panoramas displayed throughout this treatise.

A Treatise on Northern Ireland Consociation and Confederation Volume III 1st Table of contents:

Contents: Volume 3
Contents for All Three Volumes
List of Figures
List of Maps
List of Tables
List of Boxes
Abbreviations and Glossary
Terminology
3.1. Conceptual Conspectus: Consociation and Arbitration
Definitions and Types
Arguments about Consociations
Explaining the Formation of Consociations
Arbitration: Consociation’s Neglected Overseer
3.2. “No. Please Understand”: The Return to Imperial Direct Rule and the Limits to British Arbitration, 1972–1985
The Mechanics of Direct Rule and its Opening Experiment
Party System Transformations, 1969–1985
Reforms and Opening Consociational Initiatives, 1972–1976
The Failed Negotiations between the British Government’s Agents and the IRA, 1975–1976
A Second Counterinsurgency: Criminalization, Normalization, and Ulsterization, 1976–1981
Hunger Strikes Defeat Criminalization
The Limits to Reform under Arbitration
The Second Wave of Consociational Initiatives, 1979–1982
Searching for a Way out of International and Domestic Embarrassment
3.3. An Experiment in Coercive Consociation: The Making, Meaning(s), and Outcomes of the Anglo-Irish Agreement, 1985–1992
The Content of the AIA and its Rival Interpretations
Why was the AIA Signed?
The Nature of the Experiment
Impact of the Agreement, 1985–1991: Cooperation and Conflict in British–Irish Relations
Party-Political Developments: Saying No, and Lancing the Boil
The Three-Stranded Republican and Nationalist Response to the AIA
Social and Legal Justice
Violence and Security
Conclusion
3.4. A Tract of Time between War and Peace: Melding Negotiations and a Peace Process, and the Making of the Belfast and the British–Irish Agreements, 1992–1998
The Brooke Initiative
“Talks about Talks”
When the Shooting Stopped
How the Shooting Stopped
The Joint Declaration for Peace
The Framework Documents
Post-Framework Bargaining, 1995–1998
Agreeing a Text
Appendix 3.4.1. Brams’s and Togman’s Modeling of the Crisis of the Peace Process
3.5. The Making, Meaning(s), and Tasks of the 1998 Agreement
The Name(s) of the Text(s)
The Passage of the Agreement
The Consociational and Non-Consociational Components
Powers and the Division of Powers
Assembly Rules and Procedures
Executive Power-Sharing: A Dual Premiership and d’Hondt Executive
Proportionality Rules
Communal Autonomy and Equality
Minority Veto Rights
Recognition All Around
The Foundations of a Federacy?
The First Moment of Suspension
Confederalizing Possibilities in the Agreement
Federalizing Possibilities in the Agreement
Belt and Braces: Double Protection
Confidence-Building and Responses to the Agreement(s)
Why Was the Agreement Made?
Assessment of the Agreement’s Initial Implementation
Appendix 3.5.1. The Election of David Trimble and Mark Durkan as First Ministers
Appendix 3.5.2. Contra Horowitz and Lijphart, List-PR, STV (PR), the Alternative Vote, and Northern Ireland
3.6. The Long Negotiation: The Tribunes Become Consuls, 2002–2016
From Stormontgate to Voluntary Disbanding: Twists and Turns in the IRA’s Departure
The Promising Bargain: Sunningdale for Slow Learners?
The Housetraining of the DUP and Sinn Féin
The Brief Ascendancy and Fast Fall of the House of Paisley
The Consulate of Robinson and McGuinness: Getting Past Whited Sepulchers
Languages and Flags: The Tongues of our Ancestors and Vexed Vexillology
Agreement after Agreement after Agreement…
Who Won the War, the Peace, and Who should Take the Blame?
Preliminary Conclusion on Readings of the Dirty Peace
3.7. Confederal and Consociational Futures
The Year of the Four Votes (May 2016–June 2017)
Irish Futures: A Dozen Hostages to Fortune
Confederal and Federal Futures?
Consociation: Breakdown, Amendment, or Decay?
Northern Transformations
Never Giving Up?
Southern Transformations and the Questions of Reunification
Whither Partitionism? Uladh and the Erosion of the Possibility of East Ulster
The Fading of Old Arguments
Peeking through Three Twilights
Last Words
Notes
Acknowledgments
Bibliography
Index of Names
General Index
 

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